"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Detroit Tigers AnalysisDetroit Tigers Prospect NotebookDetroit Tigers Game ThreadsDetroit Tigers NewsDetroit Tigers PodcastsDetroit Tigers AnalysisHow did Tigers hitters compare to their ZiPS projections in 2018?New Scott Schebler Jersey ,3commentsA handful of Tigers beat out their projected numbers last season.ESTShareTweetShareShareHow did Tigers hitters compare to their ZiPS projections in 2018?Raj Mehta-USA TODAY SportsAs we wait for the beginning of the 2019 MLB season, it makes sense to take a look back at the season past, as rough as it might have been. The Detroit Tigers entered 2018 with low expectations as a whole, but certain individuals were projected to have favorable years. Rather than looking at numbers alone, projections provide valuable context for a player’s end-of-season stats.Many projection systems exist, but ZiPS is one that does a good job at estimating fWAR for the season ahead. While there are always deltas between projection and reality, ZiPS provides a good baseline for what to expect going into the season. Unsurprisingly, the overall projections were not too high on the 2018 Tigers, but a few players stood out in particular.This post takes a look at Tigers batters that notched at least 100 at bats last season and compares how they performed compared to their preseason projections. A subsequent post will do the same for the pitching staff.2018 Tigers Batters ZiPSNameZiPSfWARDeltaNameZiPSfWARDeltaExceeding expectationsFew players entered 2018 with lower expectations than Niko Goodrum. ZiPS projected just .221/.271/.351 and 61 wRC+ for the versatile defender, which would see him spending most of his time on the bench and near the bottom of the batting order. Of course, this is not how the season played out at all for the charismatic Goodrum, as he logged 103 wRC+ and 16 home runs during the year.ZiPS projected a -1.2 fWAR for Goodrum, which was completely justified. After his 1.1 fWAR output in 2018, he should see his 2019 closer to 1.0 fWAR than zero, and definitely nothing in the negatives.Goodrum was easily the biggest over-performer in Detroit last season, but a couple of his peers were pleasant surprises at well. Jose Iglesias (+1.4) and JaCoby Jones (+1.0) were the other big movers, as both plus-defenders were better than expected at the plate.Iglesias entered last season coming off two poor offensive years in a row, with 74 wRC+ in 2016 and 73 wRC+ in 2017. ZiPS bought into this trend, projecting 75 wRC+ in 2018. The crafty shortstop had a surprisingly improved year with the bat, doubling his steal output (15), bumping up his batting average by 14 points (.269), and posting a career-high ISO (.120). He was also helped by his always solid defense (8.2 UZR).Expectations were minimal for Jones, who was projected for just 0.2 fWAR last season. After his limited time with the Tigers in 2016 and 2017, this was probably fair, as the young outfielder struggled mightily at the plate. His 2018 season did provide a marked improvement, even though his batting average sat at .207.A 70 wRC+ is not great http://www.redsfanproshop.com/authentic-cliff-pennington-jersey , but it does show some promise going forward. Much of his 1.2 fWAR, however, came from his outstanding defense. At 21 DRS and 12.3 UZR, Jones was one of the best outfielders in 2018. Defense alone cannot carry fWAR, but ZiPS should be a little more positive on Jones for 2019.Falling shortThe Tigers who fell shortest compared to their projections in 2018 were not too surprising. Victor Martinez was not expected to do much, with ZiPS projecting 92 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR. The aging designated hitter fell woefully short of these figures, mustering just 75 wRC+ and -1.7 fWAR. Everyone knew his time was coming to a close... except maybe for the computers.James McCann and Dawel Lugo entered the season as the fixth- and sixth-highest projected Tigers batters per ZiPS, but neither went on to post a positive fWAR. For McCann, last season was the downturn of his career yo-yo, with his 2015-2018 wRC+ numbers bouncing from 84, 64, 95, and 58. His .220 average was the lowest of his career, and he dropped down to eight homers after consecutive seasons of double-digits.Lugo’s projections were a little surprising for a rookie. He was quite productive in Double-A in 2017, but a jump to the majors is obviously steep. As a result, he did not get anywhere near his modest 85 wRC+ projection. The fan base is cooling on the second baseman, and Lugo will have to do much better than 57 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR this season to keep his spot in Detroit.While ZiPS may not be the perfect measure of predicting players’ future successes, it can be a solid temperature gauge at the very least. The value in this exercise is less about finding the shortcomings of projection systems and instead recognizing which players surprised us the most. Even though ZiPS has a track record of being fairly accurate, there will always be some outliers. Bryce Harper has been a celebrity since he was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as a high school player. No player ever entered professional baseball with more fanfare.His training was under the tutelage of his father, a blue-collar steelworker, who pushed him to be a “can’t-miss” prospect. This father-son relationship was akin to Earl and Tiger Woods. Most young talented kids fight this kind of parental pressure, being consumed with the daily push to be the best ever. Most are blown out after a 150-game high school, travel team, showcase and All-Star game schedule.Not Bryce Harper. Bring on more. He goes against the ol’ axiom of “don’t equate more with better.” Harper couldn’t get enough.There was, and is, nothing about him that doesn’t equate to superstardom. Run George Foster Jersey , hit for power and average, good defender, great throwing arm, great attitude and a Pete Rose will to win.Maybe one question would be his penchant for striking out. So what? In today’s game, it’s very acceptable. His 162-game average for Ks is 150. If his power numbers are there, who cares?Bryce is in his eighth year and for several reasons has not been the player he was expected to be. With the exception of an MVP year with 42 HRs and 99 RBIs in 2015, he has fallen short of his and everyone’s expectations. There have been injuries and inconsistencies due to strikeouts and pitchers working around him, but nonetheless he’s maintained his status as one of the league’s stars.Harper is left-handed and the Phillies are a predominantly right-handed lineup. Makes for a perfect fit. Rhys Hoskins, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura and J.T. Realmuto — the meat of it — all right-handed. The addition of Harper, along with Odubel Herrera and switch-hitting Cesar Hernandez, makes the lineup balanced and one of the best in the majors on paper. Paper never won anything, now they have to prove it.If you want to question $330 million for a player with two good seasons in seven tries, go ahead, but don’t blame the player. He became a free agent under the rules, bargained his services and that’s what the market offered.You can compare this contract to others this offseason and it will boggle your mind. But Harper is now a Phillie and we’re damn happy.So what’s Bryce facing becoming the newest Phillie and highest-paid player in baseball history? Let’s ask someone who knows — me. I was the Bryce Harper of the ’80s, the largest contract ever, six years over $12 million guaranteed. Only $318 million short. People always say I was born too soon, I say it all worked out perfect. I could have been born earlier, before free agency, like Hank Aaron and Willie Mays, who never made $250,000.My experience becoming a major league player was a cartoon before a movie compared to Harper’s. No one had any idea who I was, nor did I.I was insecure, subject to pressing under pressure and feared failure. Sure, I hit many big home runs to win games Tom Seaver Jersey , but a two-out RBI single was unlikely, kinda all or nothing. I remember the boos loud and clear.That all changed as I grew and matured as person and a hitter. Bryce Harper, from my perspective, came to the big leagues ready for pressure. It has been a part of his life all along and he seems comfortable with it. Playing in this age of social media, TV exposure and daily scrutiny, forced him to learn to handle pressure in both his private and professional lives.But Philly is a whole different animal. Even though Citizens Bank Park has a more friendly environment than the old Vet, it’s still home to the most knowledgeable and passionate fans in baseball. They care, they want a winner and they will have your back if you give them 100 percent.When he hits the field for his opening home game, there will be a warm standing ovation. They will thank him for choosing their town, much like one of his idols — Pete Rose — did in 1979. Bryce is the kind of player they love, he will interact with them, he will run hard and take the extra base, run into walls, play injured, and yes, even hit 30 home runs and drive in 100. Just play hard and hustle, and all will be fine.In 1979, Pete came to Philadelphia because he saw a team very close to a championship. He knew all we needed was someone to help us get out of our own way, a new, respected voice in the clubhouse, someone to be the media focus so the rest of us could relax.The Phillies are counting that Bryce Harper will provide all those things for them, plus 120 RBIs. A new era in Phillies baseball will begin March 28.I wouldn’t miss it!